Sterilization of short-term capital inflows—through lower interest rates?

Reductions in international interest rates are a major cause of capital flows to emerging economies. Increases in domestic interest rates are a frequent policy response to the resulting price increases. This is often unsuccessful. The paper suggests a theoretical explanation based on distinctive features of emerging financial markets, including imperfect asset substitutability and imperfect capital mobility for some sectors of the economy. It concludes that the appropriate policy response to capital inflows may be lower interest rates.     

Money, endogenous fertility and economic growth

This paper analyzes the issue of money superneutrality through an intertemporal optimizing model of capital accumulation with endogenous fertility, i.e. endogenous population growth. Two elements of this setup invalidate money superneutrality: (i) a demand for fertility that depends on real money balances, and (ii) an inverse relation between capital–labor ratio and population growth. Higher monetary growth increases fertility, since it reduces its opportunity cost, and hence diminishes capital intensity, and per capita output. This reverse Tobin effect is matched by an increase in aggregate capital and output growth rates. In this framework, the optimal monetary growth rule is a “distorted Friedman rule”.     

Evidence on the existence of speculative bubbles in farmland prices

We conduct tests for the contribution of speculative bubbles to farmland prices. These tests are carried out under the hypothesis that farmland investors rationally form expectations. The outcome of tests reported here allows us to infer whether farmland prices are determined by market fundamentals-discounted returns from the highest economic land use-or whether rumors about farmland price movements are self-fulfilling. The tests are stationarity and cointegration tests relating farmland prices to rents. The tests are carried out using data from three farm production regions-the Corn Belt, the Northern Plains, and the Lake States. In each region, we find little evidence to reject the hypothesis that market fundamentals determine farmland prices.     

我国资本市场存在的制度功能缺陷与对策

我国资本市场是在新旧体制转换中建立起来的，先天就存在着制度和市场功能方面的缺陷，亟需要采取有效应对策略以弥补，使我国资本市场的发展走上正常轨道。     

广东本地服装品牌的市场培育

本地原创品牌的发展塑造需要坚持,也需要本地市场的支持。品牌经营者必须充分了解市场需求,有针对性地进行市场培育,同时结合自身条件进行品牌营销,才能在市场上取胜。文章基于服装品牌消费者层次分析,提出以差异性的品牌推广方式来培育忠诚顾客的若干策略,从而提升原创品牌的市场竞争力。     

美国银行业压力测试最新实践的经验与启示

金融危机以来,压力测试作为现有风险管理技术的重要补充,受到了广泛的关注。本文介绍了银行业压力测试的基本定义、宗旨理念、步骤程序、结论的关注点与积极作用,深入研究了美国银行业压力测试最新实践的设计和实施框架,总结了压力测试范围、情景设置、组织与资源保障、信息披露与应对措施等方面值得我国借鉴的经验,进而提出我国银行业压力测试在数据方法、覆盖范围、治理结构与结果应用等方面的建议。     

金融机构市场退出的法律问题研究

金融机构市场退出法律制度是金融生态的有机组成部分，其健全与否会严重影响金融生态的和谐发展。然而，我国当前却缺乏规范、有效的市场退出法律制度，特别是金融机构接管、撤销、破产三大法律规范存在严重缺憾，亟待加以完善。     

Towards a complete real-time electricity market design

The general design for the real-time electricity market presented in this paper optimizes and prices both real and reactive power simultaneously in an AC setting, where all assets—generation, load and transmission—are allowed to bid and are financially settled at the locational price times energy consumed or produced. The result is that transmission lines are compensated for both capacity and admittance, providing incentives for efficient operation of transmission-related assets such as FACTS devices, if price-taking behavior is assumed. Losses are incorporated into the design and become an operating cost for transmission. The market design is shown to be revenue neutral and, under some assumptions, nonconfiscatory.      

Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

新巴塞尔资本协议下操作风险资本计算方法剖析

为了使监管资本对操作风险具有更高的敏感性,对商业银行资本金进行精确计量并使之与银行潜在经济风险相匹配是新巴塞尔资本协议的主旨。本文对新协议中关于操作风险资本金计算的理论依据和计算方法进行了剖析,有助于建立我国商业银行内部风险管理模型。近年来我国商业银行业也开始了关于操作风险的量化和管理,2004年中国工商银行首次出台了操作风险管理框架,这标志着我国商业银行操作风险管理进入实质阶段。